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"contains the first clear-cut formulation of communication theory as a statistical problem"
-Claude Shannon, A Mathematical Theory of Communication

Norbert Weiner's foundational work on communication theory,
first printing, the extremely scarce World War II classified report,
with excellent provenance

WIENER, Norbert . The extrapolation, interpolatation and smoothing of stationary time series with engineering applications. [Washington, D.C.: National Defense Research Council,] 1942. Quarto, reproduced typescript in original plain orange wrappers stamped "Restricted" in red ink on upper cover, title page, table of contents, preface, and introduction; custom cloth box. $17,500.

First edition, first printing, one of only 300 copies, of Norbert Weiner's classified report; often considered the basis for modern communication theory, the Extrapolation introduced what would become known as the "Weiner filter" 

"It has been the opinion of many that Wiener will be remembered for his Extrapolation long after Cybernetics is forgotten. Indeed few computer-science students would know today what cybernetics is all about, while every communication student knows what Wiener's filter is. The work was circulated as a classified memorandum in 1942, as it was connected with sensitive war-time efforts to improve radar communication. This book became the basis for modern communication theory, by a scientist considered one of the founders of the field of artificial intelligence. Combining ideas from statistics and time-series analysis, Wiener used Gauss's method of shaping the characteristic of a detector to allow for the maximal recognition of signals in the presence of noise. This method came to be known as the 'Wiener filter'" (MIT Press).

Working with the Fire Control Division of the National Defense Research Committee during World War II, Weiner was assigned the critical problem of anti-aircraft control, specifically the task of designing a gun that could accurately and automatically aim at a high-speed moving target guided by human intelligence. Weiner and his assistant, Julian Bigelow, developed a system whereby they would treat the airplane's path as a stationary time series and use probability theory to extrapolate the airplane's future path from its past actions. The theory Weiner developed and explained in this classified document for internal government use only became a milestone in communication theory. Claude Shannon, in his Mathematical Theory of Communication (pp.626-7) notes:

"Communication theory is heavily indebted to Weiner for much of its basic philosophy and theory. His classic NDRC report 'The Interpolation, Extrapolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series,' to appear soon in book form, contains the first clear-cut formulation of communication theory as a statistical problem, the study of operations on time series."

Weiner's famous paper did indeed appear in book form in 1949, seven years after this classified report. Provenance: stamp of the Document Room at MIT's Radiation Laboratory, where Wiener performed the work described in the present paper. Slight wear to wrapper, a nearly fine copy. Extremely scarce: We know of no other copy having been offered for sale. 

 

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